Reluctant Partisans, not Undercover Partisans: Why Americans Increasingly Identify as Independent
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Abstract:
In the United States, partisanship has a greater impact on political behavior than any other social identity. Yet the proportion of Americans who actively identify with a party, as opposed to Independents who “lean” toward one, is at its lowest point in decades. Existing research offers two explanations for why: First is that Americans identify as Independent for expressive reasons, distancing themselves from the nastiness of politics despite covertly preferring one party. The second understands non-identification as primarily instrumental, a function of disapproval with both political parties. Using eight waves of panel data from 2016-2022, I compare the strength of these competing explanations, and find support for only the instrumental explanation. The rise of so-called “Independents” is more directly a consequence of disliking both major parties as opposed to reluctance to reveal a hidden partisan preference.